RealClearPolitics Polling Accountability Initiative
RealClearPolitics is bringing accountability to political polling with a new pollster ranking system.
As a leader in political polling and election coverage for two decades, RealClearPolitics is announcing an initiative to improve public trust and confidence in political polling.
Since pioneering the RCP Poll Average in 2002, the public opinion survey industry has undergone momentous changes and faced a series of challenges in a profoundly altered political landscape. Twenty years ago, Facebook and Twitter did not exist. The iPhone did not exist. The percentage of households with landlines has dropped from 90% in 2004 to just 40% today. Over the same period, the number of Americans owning cell phones has skyrocketed to 97%.
There have been many news stories over the last several months questioning whether polling is broken in the United States. While there are certainly challenges in the polling industry, it is not entirely accurate to suggest polling is broken. There are many quality pollsters and media outlets that are doing excellent work in a constantly changing technological and political environment. However, there are also pollsters and news organizations that are doing less-than-stellar work and, unfortunately, many of the polls from these organizations receive a disproportionate amount of attention.
To help address this problem, in the coming weeks RealClearPolitics will be rolling out a beta version, ranking polling organizations. RCP will rank pollsters by their performance in recent elections, and will of course evaluate their performance in the 2022 mid-term election in just under a month. RCP’s goal here is simple. Accuracy is the foundational bedrock of public trust. To that end, we will be evaluating pollsters almost exclusively on one metric – accuracy in reflecting the actual results.
Our hope is that by bringing attention to the most accurate polling firms and organizations, as well as shining a light on firms releasing less accurate surveys, we will help bring accountability to political polling that has been lacking in recent election cycles. It is our hope and belief that this effort will serve as a positive and constructive force that will improve the quality of political and media polling in the United States.
MEDIA CONTACT: To request an interview, or for further information, please contact Nick Sanchez: nsanchez@realclear.com
RELATED LINKS:
Are the Polls Wrong Again? David Leonhardt, New York Times
Pollsters Fear They’re Blowing It Again in 2022 Steven Shephard, Politico
RealClear Launches Polling Accountability Project Selena Zito, Washington Examiner
RESOURCES:
Pollster Rankings
RCP Polling Averages
2022 Election Calendar
Free Polling Syndication
